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Rio Tinto Group (NYSE: RIO) Forecast: Expect A -46.9% Fall In Near Future

Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO) price on Friday, March 17, fall -0.09% below its previous day’s close as a downside momentum from buyers pushed the stock’s value to $64.67.

A look at the stock’s price movement, the close in the last trading session was $64.73, moving within a range at $64.03 and $65.05. The beta value (5-Year monthly) was 0.70 while the PE ratio in trailing twelve months stood at 8.48. Turning to its 52-week performance, $83.21 and $50.92 were the 52-week high and 52-week low respectively. Overall, RIO moved -13.11% over the past month.

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Rio Tinto Group’s market cap currently stands at around $109.08 billion. The company has a Forward Dividend ratio of 9.09, with its dividend yield at 14.06%. As such, investors might be keen on an upside in the stock’s price ahead of the scheduled earnings report.

Revisions could be used as tool to get short term price movement insight, and for the company that in the past seven days was no upward and no downward review(s). Turning to the stock’s technical picture we see that short term indicators suggest on average that RIO is a Hold. On the other hand, the stock is on average a 50% Buy as suggested by medium term indicators while long term indicators are putting the stock in Hold category.

RIO’s current price about -8.76% and -12.66% off the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14) currently prints 32.73, while 7-day volatility ratio is 2.50% and 2.03% in the 30-day chart. Further, Rio Tinto Group (RIO) has a beta value of 0.71, and an average true range (ATR) of 2.09. Analysts have given the company’s stock an average 52-week price target of $79.68, forecast between a low of $67.00 and high of $95.00. Looking at the price targets, the low is -3.6% off current price level while to achieve the yearly target high, price needs to move -46.9%. Nonetheless, investors will most likely welcome a -21.17% jump to $78.36 which is the analysts’ median price.

In the market, a comparison of Rio Tinto Group (RIO) and its peers suggest the former has performed considerably weaker. Data shows RIO’s intraday price has changed -0.09% in last session and -11.07% over the past year. Comparatively, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) has moved 0.36% on the day and only -21.27% in the past 12 months. Moreover, Vale S.A. (VALE) is also up 1.28% in trading on the day while keeping a a downtrend of -8.81% over the past year. If we look at the PE ratio, we find that Rio Tinto Group’s ratio stands at 8.48 compared to Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s 15.22. Elsewhere, the overall performance for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial shows that the indexes are down -1.10% and -1.19% respectively in the last trading.

If we refocus on Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO), historical trading data shows that trading volumes averaged 4.48 million over the past 10 days and 3.00 million over the past 3 months. The company’s latest data on shares outstanding shows there are 1.62 billion shares.

The 6.50% of Rio Tinto Group’s shares are in the hands of company insiders while institutional holders own 11.10% of the company’s shares. Also important is the data on short interest which shows that short shares stood at 10.97 million on Jan 30, 2023, giving us a short ratio of 4.06. The data shows that as of Jan 30, 2023 short interest in Rio Tinto Group (RIO) stood at 0.68% of shares outstanding, with shares short falling to 12.61 million registered in Dec 29, 2022. Current price change has pushed the stock -9.17% YTD, which shows the potential for further growth is there. It is this reason that could see investor optimism for the RIO stock continues to rise going into the next quarter.

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