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Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) Forecast: Expect A -56.38% Fall In Near Future

Big Lots Inc. (NYSE:BIG) price on Friday, March 17, fall -5.23% below its previous day’s close as a downside momentum from buyers pushed the stock’s value to $12.15.

A look at the stock’s price movement, the close in the last trading session was $12.82, moving within a range at $11.81 and $12.69. The beta value (5-Year monthly) was 2.04. Turning to its 52-week performance, $40.45 and $12.49 were the 52-week high and 52-week low respectively. Overall, BIG moved -28.91% over the past month.

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Big Lots Inc.’s market cap currently stands at around $359.28 million, with investors looking forward to this quarter’s earnings report slated for May 25, 2023 – May 29, 2023. The company has a Forward Dividend ratio of 1.20, with its dividend yield at 9.88%. As such, investors might be keen on an upside in the stock’s price ahead of the scheduled earnings report. Analysts project the company’s earnings per share (EPS) to be -$1.67, which has seen fiscal year 2024 EPS growth forecast to increase to -$4.49 and about -$2.44 for fiscal year 2025. Per the data, EPS growth is expected to be 24.70% for 2023 and 45.70% for the next financial year.

Analysts have a consensus estimate of $1.19 billion for the company’s revenue for the quarter, with a low and high estimate of $1.16 billion and $1.22 billion respectively. The average forecast suggests down to a -13.30% growth in sales growth compared to quarterly growth in the same period last fiscal year. Wall Street analysts have also projected the company’s year-on-year revenue for 2024 to grow to $5.15 billion, representing a -5.80% decline on that reported in the last financial year.

Revisions could be used as tool to get short term price movement insight, and for the company that in the past seven days was no upward and no downward review(s). Turning to the stock’s technical picture we see that short term indicators suggest on average that BIG is a 100% Sell. On the other hand, the stock is on average a 100% Sell as suggested by medium term indicators while long term indicators are putting the stock in 100% Sell category.

10 analyst(s) have given their forecast ratings for the stock on a scale of 1.00-5.00 for a strong buy to strong sell recommendation. A total of 5 analyst(s) rate the stock as a Hold, 1 recommend BIG as a Buy and 0 give it an Overweight rating. Meanwhile, 1 analyst(s) rate the stock as Underweight and 3 say it is a Sell. As such, the average rating for the stock is Underweight which could provide an opportunity for investors keen on increasing their holdings of the company’s stock.

BIG’s current price about -16.61% and -24.53% off the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI, 14) currently prints 27.12, while 7-day volatility ratio is 6.42% and 6.27% in the 30-day chart. Further, Big Lots Inc. (BIG) has a beta value of 2.01, and an average true range (ATR) of 0.91. Analysts have given the company’s stock an average 52-week price target of $13.13, forecast between a low of $9.00 and high of $19.00. Looking at the price targets, the low is 25.93% off current price level while to achieve the yearly target high, price needs to move -56.38%. Nonetheless, investors will most likely welcome a -11.11% jump to $13.50 which is the analysts’ median price.

In the market, a comparison of Big Lots Inc. (BIG) and its peers suggest the former has performed considerably weaker. Data shows BIG’s intraday price has changed -5.23% in last session and -67.37% over the past year. Comparatively, Dollar General Corporation (DG) has moved -1.54% on the day and only -1.72% in the past 12 months. Looking at another peer, we see that Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) price has dipped -0.04% on the day. However, the stock is -10.37% off its price a year ago. Moreover, Five Below Inc. (FIVE) is also down -0.99% in trading on the day while keeping a an uptrend of 21.63% over the past year. Elsewhere, the overall performance for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial shows that the indexes are down -1.10% and -1.19% respectively in the last trading.

If we refocus on Big Lots Inc. (NYSE:BIG), historical trading data shows that trading volumes averaged 1.46 million over the past 10 days and 1.22 million over the past 3 months. The company’s latest data on shares outstanding shows there are 28.94 million shares.

The 0.40% of Big Lots Inc.’s shares are in the hands of company insiders. Also important is the data on short interest which shows that short shares stood at 9.07 million on Feb 27, 2023, giving us a short ratio of 7.78. The data shows that as of Feb 27, 2023 short interest in Big Lots Inc. (BIG) stood at 31.31% of shares outstanding, with shares short rising to 8.78 million registered in Jan 30, 2023. Current price change has pushed the stock -17.35% YTD, which shows the potential for further growth is there. It is this reason that could see investor optimism for the BIG stock continues to rise going into the next quarter.

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