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Why Did Alamos Gold Inc. (NYSE: AGI) Drop So Much?

Alamos Gold Inc. (NYSE:AGI) traded at $11.37 at close of the session on Tuesday, 01/24/23, made an upward move of 1.70% on its previous day’s price.

Looking at the stock we see that its previous close was $11.18 and the beta (5Y monthly) reads 1.07 with the day’s price range being $11.06 – $11.445. The company has a trailing 12-month PE ratio of 127.75. In terms of its 52-week price range, AGI has a high of $11.38 and a low of $6.35. The company’s stock has gained about 13.70% over that past 30 days.

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Alamos Gold Inc. has a market cap of $5.92 billion and is expected to release its quarterly earnings report on Feb 21, 2023 – Feb 27, 2023. With its Forward Dividend at 0.14 and a yield of 1.20%, the company’s investors could be anxious for the AGI stock to gain ahead of the earnings release. Estimates by analysts give the company expected earnings per share (EPS) of $0.09, with the EPS growth for the year raised at $0.26 for 2022 and $0.33 for next year. These figures represent -36.60% and 26.90% growth in EPS for the two years respectively.

Analysts tracking the company’s growth have also given it a consensus growth in revenue estimated at $228.11 million, with a low of $214 million and a high of $240.1 million. The median projection represents growth squeezing down to 12.30% compared to sales growth for the corresponding quarter a year ago. According to analyst consensus estimates figures, the company’s yearly revenue forecast for 2022 is expected to hit $820.1 million, or -0.40% down from figures reported last year.

There have been no upward and no downward revisions for the stock’s EPS in last 7 days, something that reflects the nature of company’s price movement in short term. On the other hand, looking at the outlook for the AGI stock, short term indicators assign the stock an average of 100% Buy, while medium term indicators assign it an average of 100% Buy. Long term indicators on average place the stock in the category of 100% Buy.

Based on estimates by 12 analysts, where scores have ranged from 1.00 for a strong buy to 5.00 for a strong sell, 5 have rated the Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) stock as a Hold, while 7 rate it as a Buy. 0 analyst(s) rate it as overweight while 0 of them rated it as underweight, whereas 0 suggest the stock as a Sell. The stock has an overall rating of Overweight and investors could take advantage and scoop up stock of the company.

Looking further, we note the current price level is 6.90% off its SMA20 and 14.37% from its 50-day simple moving average. The RSI (14) is pointing at 71.68 while the volatility over the past week is 3.13% and jumps to 3.08% over the past one month. The beta value is 1.07, while the average true range (ATR) is currently pointing at 0.34. The average price target for the stock over the next 12 months is $11.82, with the estimates having a low of $9.75 and a high of $14.20. These price ends are 14.25% and -24.89% off the current price level respectively, although investors could be excited at the prospect of a -5.19% if the AGI share price touches on the median price of $11.96.

Let’s briefly compare Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) stock to its peers. We find that current price change of 1.70% and 61.74% over the past 12 months for AGI competes that of Kellogg Company (K), which has seen its stock price rise 0.56% in the last trading session and was 1.59% over the last one year. Another of its peers Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD) has gained 0.99% previous session, and was 1.88% up over the past year, while Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY) was also up 1.14% in the last session, while its price remained in the green at 47.03% over the same period. Alamos Gold Inc. has a P/E ratio of 127.75 compared to Kellogg Company’s 15.59 and Barrick Gold Corporation’s 18.23. In contrast to these companies, both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial were at -0.07% and 0.31%, respectively, at close of the trading.

Coming back to Alamos Gold Inc. (NYSE:AGI), we note that the average 3-month trading volume was 3.70 million, while that of the preceding 10-day period stands at 3.69 million. Current shares outstanding are 391.79 million.

The insiders hold 0.30% of the company’s shares while institutions hold 65.27%. The data shows that short shares as of Oct 13, 2022, stood at 10.93 million at a short ratio of 2.82. This represents a 2.79% short interest in shares outstanding on Oct 13, 2022. Shares short rose in October from the previous month at 10.5 million. Investors should be excited about this stock as its upside potential is great, with current price pushing the stock 12.46% up in year-to-date price movement.

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