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Why Did Qudian Inc. (NYSE: QD) Drop So Much?

Qudian Inc. (NYSE:QD) traded at $1.14 at close of the session on Monday, 01/23/23, made an upward move of 5.56% on its previous day’s price.

Looking at the stock we see that its previous close was $1.08 and the beta (5Y monthly) reads 0.74 with the day’s price range being $1.085 – $1.15. In terms of its 52-week price range, QD has a high of $2.18 and a low of $0.63. The company’s stock has gained about 17.84% over that past 30 days.

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Qudian Inc. has a market cap of $271.81 million and is expected to release its quarterly earnings report on Mar 16, 2023 – Mar 20, 2023. Estimates by analysts give the company expected earnings per share (EPS) of $0, with the EPS growth for the year raised at -$0.13 for 2022 and -$0.04 for next year. These figures represent -137.10% and 69.20% growth in EPS for the two years respectively.

According to analyst consensus estimates figures, the company’s yearly revenue forecast for 2022 is expected to hit $74.35 million, or -69.90% down from figures reported last year.

There have been no upward and no downward revisions for the stock’s EPS in last 7 days, something that reflects the nature of company’s price movement in short term. On the other hand, looking at the outlook for the QD stock, short term indicators assign the stock an average of 100% Buy, while medium term indicators assign it an average of Hold. Long term indicators on average place the stock in the category of 50% Buy.

Based on estimates by 1 analysts, where scores have ranged from 1.00 for a strong buy to 5.00 for a strong sell, 1 have rated the Qudian Inc. (QD) stock as a Hold, while 0 rate it as a Buy. 0 analyst(s) rate it as overweight while 0 of them rated it as underweight, whereas 0 suggest the stock as a Sell. The stock has an overall rating of Hold and investors could take advantage and scoop up stock of the company.

Looking further, we note the current price level is 10.44% off its SMA20 and 23.35% from its 50-day simple moving average. The RSI (14) is pointing at 61.71 while the volatility over the past week is 8.68% and jumps to 7.99% over the past one month. The beta value is 0.54, while the average true range (ATR) is currently pointing at 0.08. The average price target for the stock over the next 12 months is $7.21, with the estimates having a low of $7.21 and a high of $7.21. These price ends are -532.46% and -532.46% off the current price level respectively, although investors could be excited at the prospect of a -532.46% if the QD share price touches on the median price of $7.21.

Let’s briefly compare Qudian Inc. (QD) stock to its peers. We find that current price change of 5.56% and 8.57% over the past 12 months for QD competes that of OneMain Holdings Inc. (OMF), which has seen its stock price rise 2.40% in the last trading session and was -19.63% over the last one year. Another of its peers Nicholas Financial Inc. (NICK) has dropped -1.18% previous session, and was -47.59% down over the past year, while Navient Corporation (NAVI) was also up 1.03% in the last session, while its price remained in the red at -10.79% over the same period. In contrast to these companies, both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial were at 1.19% and 0.76%, respectively, at close of the trading.

Coming back to Qudian Inc. (NYSE:QD), we note that the average 3-month trading volume was 879.94K, while that of the preceding 10-day period stands at 1.46 million. Current shares outstanding are 245.22 million.

The insiders hold 1.60% of the company’s shares while institutions hold 19.00%. The data shows that short shares as of Oct 13, 2022, stood at 3.06 million at a short ratio of 6.84. This represents a 1.21% short interest in shares outstanding on Oct 13, 2022. Shares short fall in October from the previous month at 3.55 million. Investors should be excited about this stock as its upside potential is great, with current price pushing the stock 19.62% up in year-to-date price movement.

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